Trump's quiet guns agenda
During the 2024 presidential cycle, the hit on Trump was he “did nothing” on guns. But the truth was different. During his first term, Trump quietly took a series of executive actions to undermine federal background checks, fuel pandemic gun sales, and divert research and CVI resources. His actions didn’t always drive headlines, but they did help drive the deadliest surge in gun violence in modern history.
That’s exactly what we expect this time around. While Republicans on the Hill talk a big game about national concealed carry reciprocity, the largest threat Trump poses on gun safety is what he’ll do on his own — through guidance, rules, and illegal funding rescissions.
Unlike on other issues, Trump didn’t forecast his gun policy plans in Project 2025, so it’s hard to know exactly what we’ll need to defend. That’s why we’re launching an open-source tracker of Trump’s actions on guns. Right now, it includes nearly 100 of his campaign promises, first-term policies, and Biden administration actions that are under threat. Send us tips, flag Federal Register links, and ask us questions. We’ll update the tracker in real time over the coming months.
Here’s why we think it’s important: If Trump rescinds BSCA funding, cities can sue. If he pulls back on ATF gun store inspections, states can fill in the gap. If he purges records from NICS, groups can sound the alarm with the press. And if he picks up a gun… well, that’s now officially a federal (and likely state) felony.
By meticulously tracking Trump’s actions, we can blunt his agenda. And we can ensure that when the story of his first two years is told, it doesn’t read “Trump did nothing on guns,” but instead “Trump did everything he could to make us less safe.”
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Some executive actions Trump will take are obvious: He’ll shutter the White House Office of GVP, overturn the Ghost Gun rule, and repeal the updated “Engaged in the Business” definition. But it’s the quieter attacks we have our eyes on.
ILLEGALLY RESCINDING GVP GRANTS: During Trump’s first term, agencies were notorious for illegally breaking multi-year grant agreements on everything from teen pregnancy prevention to nonprofit journalism. With Elon Musk promising to take a cleaver to Congressionally-authorized spending, GVP grants – from Byrne SCIP to DOJ’s CVI initiative – could face unlawful impoundment or rescission.
CLOSING OFF FEDERAL FUNDING: Trump will attack GVP funding in others ways too: By changing guidance, adding illegal grant requirements, and rescinding Medicaid waivers. We tracked down nearly 30 guidance documents issued by the Biden administration that make evidenced-based GVP initiatives an allowable use of existing funding streams. Will that guidance survive?
LETTING GUN DEALERS BREAK THE LAW: Gun dealer license revocations increased 387% between 2020-2024, driven largely by the Biden administration’s zero tolerance policy for gun dealers that willfully break the law. Trump will undoubtedly reverse the policy and let dealers sell to prohibited purchasers in other ways too, including by cutting dealer inspections, deleting background check records, and allowing more sales to fall through the Charleston Loophole – all things he did during his first term.
ARMING DOMESTIC ABUSERS: Trump’s Supreme Court didn’t arm abusers in Rahimi, but Trump himself certainly will. He’ll rescind the Biden rule clarifying the BSCA’s new domestic violence prohibitor, eliminate DOJ’s model legislation for Red Flag laws, and limit reporting of denied firearm transfers to law enforcement.
PUTTING GUNS IN CLASSROOMS: In 2018, Trump’s education secretary (incorrectly) claimed school districts could use federal education grants to arm teachers. He won’t stop there this time around. In addition to putting guns in schools, he’ll likely roll back Biden-era gun safety lock requirements, limit health care providers from providing gun safety counseling, and eliminate Education Department resources on safe storage.
STATES FILLING THE VOID
With Trump planning to create a federal enforcement vacuum on January 20th, effective state policy has never been more urgent. If you’re working on a state-level project and need an extra set of hands, count us in. You can reach us by responding directly to the Background Check.
EVERGREEN PARTNER SPOTLIGHT
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